Environmental Protection: Picking Up Speed

Here’s an article authored by me that Environmental Protection magazine just printed. Please visit their website EPOnline to get the original copy and other relevant articles on environmental issues. It also made the cover of the magazine (nice!). The article only touches upon what is happening in the automotive world, but the hope is to spark a conversation about “what cars would/should we be driving in 5-10 years, not 50 years?”.

Picking Up Speed

Hybrid engines and other new technologies are making rapid advances in controlling automotive emissions and improving fuel efficiency
By Dr. Bilal Zuberi

Nearly four decades ago, a dramatic deterioration of air quality and repeat occurrences of smog in large cities such as New York and Los Angeles led to national recognition of the growing problem of pollution from the automotive sector. As a result, Congress passed the Clean Air Act of 1970 — the first major environmental law intended to improve air quality by reducing emissions and pollutants from their sources. A key aspect of this legislation was the identification of “criteria pollutants,” specific constituents of air pollution such as ozone, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide, which would be monitored and controlled via additional regulations.

Emissions Reduction Progress
During the past few decades, the automotive industry has made tremendous advances in reducing pollutants in auto emissions. In some cases, such as the reduction of diesel particulate emissions in Europe, the industry voluntarily introduced new and clean technologies, but, in other cases, progress is largely a result of aggressive legislation. For example, the tailpipe emissions of hydrocarbons from gasoline cars were reduced from 10.6 gallons per mile (g/mile) in 1971 to 0.06 g/mile by 2004. In addition, smog producing NOx was reduced from 3.6 g/mile to 0.05 g/mile.

Despite those reductions, the rapid growth in car sales around the world, especially in countries with developing economies such as China and India, has increased the need for a continued decrease in automotive emissions. Additionally, now that the link between carbon dioxide emissions and global warming is firmly established (See Figure C), it has become imperative to innovate around technologies that reduce emissions and improve fuel economy simultaneously. With or without pressure from global treaties to curb greenhouse gas emissions, e.g. the Kyoto protocol, the automotive industry is positioned to accept and meet these challenges.

Pollution and long term environmental degradation: impediments to Pakistan’s growth

A few weeks ago I organized an academic panel discussion on global climate change and the impact on Pakistan. The speakers were leaders in the field of climate change and sustainable development, and provided a crisp account of the short and long term threats that developing countries such as Pakistan faced in the wake of rapidly increasing air and noise pollution as well as long term weather & climate related ecological changes.However, at the end of the session one gentleman walked up to me and remarked: “humain apnay khaaney peenay kee paree hai, aur tum samajhte ho key hum environment per tawajjah dey sakte hain?” (i.e. we are concerned about our food/livelihood and you think we can pay attention to the environment?). This post reflects on that interaction.

We all agree that Pakistan is in a deep quagmire right now, in more ways than one. Our society is in the middle of a historic struggle to once again win freedom - this time from the hands of the military and the corrupt politician-military alliance. At the same time, we also face internal threats in the shape of religious extremism and suicide attacks, and external geo-political developments. In the middle of all this chaos is an ordinary Pakistani who is unable to earn decent wages, has to deal with rapid inflation and crunch on food supplies, and political-economic chaos around him continues to negatively impact his/her daily job.

But then - can we really afford to not pay attention to our ecology and environment, given that our very livelihoods depend directly on it? I don’t think so.

US Energy Options: Climate Change and Energy Security Impacts in 2025

Excellent chart. I find some validation in this for my position that US really needs to increase the CAFE standards NOW because the technology is already available in the form of clean diesel vehicles, gasoline-hybrids, and other advanced combustion technologies (see here and here).

Read my article in The Boston Globe on the need to raise fuel economy.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Greenhouse Gas Contributions of Automobiles Around the World

Look at that chart below. It is striking that the USA not only has the largest population of automobiles in the world (highest penetration per unit population), but also contributes significantly to the CO2 emissions (size of the ball). Clearly, so much can be done to reduce the impact of the automotive industry on anthropogenic global warming.

However, what is even more worrisome? Look at China, for example. See how low their automotive penetration is compared to a country like US, and see what their CO2 contributions are. Now imagine if China was to develop an automotive penetration that was as high as the USA? What would be its contribution to the greenhouse gases if cleaner technologies were not adopted? This is a major question, not just for China but for all rapidly developing countries. Of course they deserve the development, the growth, and the improved mobility that is a part of it all, but this world really needs to figure out how to make clean technologies accessible and affordable to these countries. If not, we are headed towards some real trouble.

Additional reading(s): here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Protest against ‘Emergency’ in Boston

Pakistani students and community gathered today in the Boston Commons to protest the imposition of a pseudo-martial law, aka Emergency, by President Musharraf in Pakistan. Here are a few images and a short video from the protest.

Kudos to the students who quickly came together and helped spread the word about the demonstration. There was media present there, including GEO TV and a few other TV channels. Let’s hope all these demonstrations strike some sense in our current government’s head. They seem to be on a self-destruct mode.

Who chose the red color for the occasion, by the way? Fauzia, the main organizer, also had a lovely red coat on.

Happy Diwali to all my Indian and Hindu friends

RAWALPINDI - Nov 09: Girls light clay lamps in their house on the occasion of Diwali on Friday.—Dawn Online

LAHORE - Nov 09: Women celebrate Dewali at Krishna Mandir.— APP

KARACHI - Nov 09: Members of the Hindu community celebrate Diwali by playing with sparklers.—Dawn Online

Study Finds Diesel and Hybrid Vehicles Can Provide More Societal and Private Benefits than Gasoline and E85 Vehicles

RAND Study Finds Diesel and Hybrid Vehicles Can Provide More Societal and Private Benefits than Gasoline and E85 Vehicles

from Green Car Congress by Mike Millikin

Rising fuel costs, as expressed in the cost of the energy security externality, significantly change the outcome for E85-powered vehicles. Click to enlarge.

Cars and light trucks powered by advanced diesel technology or hybrid technology can provide larger private (consumer) and societal benefits than traditional gasoline-powered automobiles, according to a RAND Corporation working paper presented today.

The paper by RAND, “The Benefits and Costs of New Fuels and Engines for Cars and Light Trucks”, also found that cars and light trucks continuously fueled by a mixture of E85 compare unfavorably with the other two alternatives. That finding, however, changes dramatically if the cost of fuel rises sharply.

Rising oil prices coupled with concerns about global climate change are driving debate about which fuels and engines should be used to power the 17 million new cars and trucks sold each year. Advanced diesel and hybrid technologies show very well in this study, in terms of benefits to the individual and society overall. E85 simply doesn’t provide the same benefits.

—John Graham, senior author and dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School

Graham presented the results of the research at the annual meeting of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management in Washington, DC.

The research examines the benefits and costs of three alternatives to the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine for the 2010-2020 period: gasoline-electric hybrid technology (as found in the Toyota Prius or the Ford Escape SUV Hybrid), advanced diesel technology (such as the Mercedes-Benz E320 sedan), and dual-fuel vehicles that are powered continuously by E85, where the ethanol is produced from corn.

Questions for Pakistanis - especially those against the emergency rule!

Over the past few days, I have received a lot of drafts of petitions and statements against the emergency rule in Pakistan…I am trying to make sense of where does the Pakistani nation stand on the current crisis. And frankly - I can’t make head or tail of it. Maybe my own knowledge is limited so I am hoping some friends here can help me understand:

1. Do we want the emergency rule to go away, or Musharraf to step down from his military post?

2. Do we want Musharraf to leave his uniform, or altogether disappear from the scene?

3. Who or what are we proposing as alternatives? Politicians who spent time in self-imposed exiles or those who are sitting in the parliament now (and have been there for the past 10-15 years now)?

4. How do we make sure that the different branches of the government operate without (a) stepping over each others’ toes while maintaining checks and balances, and (b) without indulging in activism for the sake of it? What does the nation think of Musharraf’s indictment against the judiciary and the media?

5. How does the nation want to deal with the threat of extremism and terrorism? Do we even see it as a grave threat - or just another fact of life you just learn to live with?

Emergency in Pakistan: A Political Meltdown

As a Pakistani, whose nation exists today in a state of emergency (and the constitution stands suspended), I am indeed upset, worried, and afraid of what is next. General Musharraf is, as a friend puts it, in a kar lo jo kar na hai (do what ever you want but I am here to stay) mode where he seems to be going about the country’s business like a mad bull in a china shop. As an outsider it appears that he and the government under him are breaking all rules, thinking that once all bones of this democratic society are broken they will somehow miraculously heal themselves right.

Is that true? I cannot tell, but it is a pity that while one can say good or bad things about General Musharraf’s control of the government, we still do not seem to have any clear alternatives that can warrant support. The official reason for the imposition of the emergency rule (i.e. mini martial law) is the increase in terrorist activity within Pakistan and the political pandemonium, but I doubt even he believes he can sell this to the nation. The real reason, I think, is that General Musharraf feels nobody else can fix this country - certainly not the corrupt, mostly illiterate and opportunist, politicians. So he feels he has to take control in one form or another if there is any hope to set the country on the right path. I question though if this high handed approach is a big part of the problem, and not the solution.

I strong resent the imposition of the emergency in Pakistan - whether one likes Musharraf’s policies or not. Panic has set in and it will take a long time for the nation to recover from this. For now, it is not more than just another tactic to stay in power, oppress the freedom of speech, and to heavy handedly silence the opposing voices in the society. Musharraf has laid out a good set of arguments for doing so - but it is not resonating with the times and the society he lives in.

But as I oppose the emergency rule now, I also openly admit that when Musharraf took control in Oct 1999 I did support him and wrote in his favor. At that time I was the President of the MIT’s Pakistani Students Society and wrote the following in the university newspaper The Tech. I am amazed how familiar the charges back then against Nawaz Sharif (then prime-minister) now sound similar to what is being practiced by General Musharraf himself.

The Pakistan Coup’s Other Side
Guest Column
Bilal Zuberi

Recently, a lot has been published in the Western press about the military coup in Pakistan. Most of the press coverage tends to give the impression that the country has been taken over by a ruthless band of military commanders, and the lives and liberties of ordinary civilians are threatened. On the contrary, it seems that a large majority of Pakistanis, in Pakistan and abroad, have welcomed the coup. There have been no large public protests or demonstrations in support of the ousted government.

Pakistani intellectuals and journalists belonging to many disparate camps are writing in favor of the military coup. The people of Pakistan are viewing the new leadership as a refreshing alternative to the elected but inept and corrupt governments of the recent past. The new military government has provided a beacon of hope to the people.

The Western media, in its sensational stereotyping of the coup, has largely ignored what the Pakistani people feel about the military takeover. Nawaz Sharif, the ousted prime minister, was elected in 1996. His party enjoyed an overall majority in the parliament. He had the golden opportunity to bring prosperity to the nation. Instead, Nawaz Sharif used the parliamentary majority to increase his power and his wealth, and in the process destroyed all institutions of checks and balances that are indispensible to any democracy. He introduced amendments in the constitution which made it illegal for any party member to express an opinion different from his or her party’s official policy.