Dirty clouds affect rice harvest in India

A recent article in the Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences has deduced that air pollution and global climate change is having anegative effect on the rice crops in India. The article is titled Integrated model shows that atmospheric brown clouds and greenhouse gases have reduced rice harvests in India, and is available at the PNAS website (the picture here is a satellite image of the brown clouds seen over the Indian Ocean).

It’s authors include V. Ramanathan, who is an air pollution expert and also the lead author of a study conducted a few years ago showing that the dark clouds, containing dust and soot, above the Indian ocean were leading to faster rise in air temperatures. The dark clouds were absorbing the sun’s radiation and not just leading to temperature changes in the air, while simulataneously reducing the amount of radiation reaching the earth and causing changes in precipitation patterns. It does not take a genius to figure out that all the brown/black stuff in those clouds is mostly anthropogenic (human-created) in origin.

Previous studies have found that atmospheric brown clouds partially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases. This finding suggests a tradeoff between the impacts of reducing emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Results from a statistical model of historical rice harvests in India, coupled with regional climate scenarios from a parallel climate model, indicate that joint reductions in brown clouds and greenhouse gases would in fact have complementary, positive impacts on harvests. The results also imply that adverse climate changes due to brown clouds and greenhouse gases contributed to the slowdown in harvest growth that occurred during the past two decades.

This paper provides high quality data on projections for rice harvest, a major food crop in that part of the world - feeding billions - when local climate changes due to the warming effects of brown clouds are included in the models.

The authors found that historical rice harvests would have been larger in the absence of the clouds, and larger still if reductions in the clouds were accompanied by reductions in greenhouse gases. Contrary to previous concerns that reducing the brown clouds could diminish harvests by unveiling the warming effects of greenhouse gases, these results suggest that reductions in these clouds, alone or in combination with reductions in greenhouse gases, would benefit rice harvests in India.

Edhi for the Nobel Prize!

Many of you probably have no clue who Abdus Sattar Edhi is! I say this because my guess is that most people reading my blog are not of Pakistani origin.

But Edhi is not someone you should know as a Pakistani. Yes, Edhi is the name of a single person, but when spoken in the context of a lifetime of service to humanity’s poorest members, it is the name associated with a movement that to me is larger than any other known to mankind. Edhi is the name of an old man, approximately 80 years old, who is perhaps the most trusted, the most respected, and the most honorable bearded man that I know.

I have no qualifications whatsoever to write about Edhi and his monumental work in charity, welfare, emergency services, and shelters for women and children. As many many Pakistanis would say, Edhi Sahib is there when no one else is. When all hope is lost, one can turn to Edhi, if nothing than just for that precious loving smile that can only come from a man with such a generous heart. I do not easily use the word Sahib to salute someone, but among the few people in Pakistan I will bend over backwards for, Edhi Sahib has to be on top of it.

I first learnt about Edhi as a little kid growing up in Karachi. Edhi ambulances were everywhere, Edhi homes were the place to go for charity, when bodies were found dead without relatives taking ownership, Edhi Sahib’s morgues would hold them, prepare them for burial and his staff would say the cermonial prayer. When women were beaten in their homes and feared their lives, they went to Edhi Sahib’s shelters, and if I wanted to support the largest orphanages in my city, I knew I had to support Edhi Centers.

As a kid I have seen Edhi Sahib, in his ever so salt-and-pepper beard and cap standing on the street corners of Karachi, literally begging and collecting 1 ruppee at a time to continue his charity operations. I have handed him a 5 ruppee bill and heard him say “Shukria, Allah aap kaa bhalaa karey“. Those words will never be forgotten from my memory. When Karachi was burning in the early 90’s, I have watched Edhi defy bullets and enter areas of Karachi that I would not dare drive through. I have watched him carry wounded young men off the streets, and watched him beg the residents of the same city to not listen to idiotic politicians and give his network their charity, alms, and hides during the sacrifice season. When there were rumors in the city that Edhi Center was a front operation of an illegal organ sale mafia, I walked into an Edhi center and myself witnessed his workers serving food to the homeless and the women who had been abandoned by their families. I have watched goons go door-to-door discrediting this great man and his charity organization - and then I have watched the same feeble man show his two-room apartment in an old part of Karachi, from where he runs his largest ambulance network in one of the most populated countries of the world. The only thing I ask is, when have I not seen Edhi be at the forefront of all emergency relief, rescue, and support operations? When is Edhi not the name to call on in cases of trouble? When has Edhi turned anyone away, and has Edhi not sacrificed his entire life to create a momentum for charitable social service in Pakistan that will live way beyond his own mortal life. Truth be told, if we had a process in Islam to beatify saints, I would nominate him for that.

But no, we do not have that process. But what we do have is a request from a dear friend to help him create a dossier that he can file with the Nobel Committee to consider Abdus Sattar Edhi and his foundation for a Nobel prize. He is the one man I know who truly deserves it, not only because he has literally been the difference between life and death for millions of people, but because his charity supersedes nationality, religion, caste, culture, or creed. If there is one living bearded man who deserves to be on the front page of our newspapers, our stamps, our post card, and on our walls, it is he. Please support Adil in his nomination effort by sending your personal encounters with Edhi and any other information you might have on him to his attention. Let me know if you want his personal email, otherwise you can see his post here to get more information on his project (clicking on any of the pictures will take you the nomination post). Only a few days are left, so please hurry up!!!

Sources:
Edhi Foundation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edhi_Foundation
Abdus Sattar Edhi: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Sattar_Edhi
Nomainating Edhi for Nobel Prize: http://pakistaniat.com/2007/01/23/nobel-award-pakistan-abdul-sattar-edhi-testimonial/

How the ‘Right’ found itself on the wrong side.

Gideon Lachman has a wonderful article in Financial Times detailing how the right wing America is suddenly finding itself on the wrong side of two issues that are dominating not just the airwaves, but also people’s thoughts. He writes:

From 1979 to 2004, the right won the battle of ideas in the western world. Conservatives triumphed because they got the two big issues of the era right: they were in favour of free markets and against communism. But now the right is in disarray because it has found itself on the wrong side of the two dominating issues in contemporary western politics: global warming and the Iraq war.

I find this very inteesting. Not only because at least on these two issues, I found myself certainly aligned with the so-called ‘Left’, but that political commentators are finally recognizing the importance of global warming and global climate change as a hot political issue. It is no longer the ‘invented here’ issue associated with Al-Gore, or a me-too issue associated with Governold Arnold Schwarzenegger of California.

On the Iraq issue:
Memories of anti-war marches from a few years ago are still quite vivid in my mind. On my university campus myself and my colleagues were called out of touch with reality and in the toughest cases, we were called one of ‘them’, i.e. one of those wishing ill for America. It was tough trying to talk against the war and not be called a sympathizer of the Islamists, the fascists, the terrorists, and whatever else was used to create the ‘other’ in a war of right vs wrong. Even some muslims had joined that mantra - they had thought time had come for the ‘liberation’ of all muslims, for their western lifestyles, thoughts, and views to finally take hold in the rest of the world so that they could more comfortably travel there, and eventually move there to be closer to their families. But in all that mess, one critical thing was forgotten: we were talking of war and peace. Those of us protesting were worried about human casualties in a war of attrrition that was putting up a weak government in a troubled country against the mighty forces of western influence. None of us cared two hoots about Saddam or his croonies - but we were worried about the people in Iraq, and ot be honest in my case, about muslims everywhere, esp in Pakistan. I had this fear that there was a slight chance that the strategy would go wrong and that even if the US forces won in Iraq, once they leave the bad guys would go in and start taking revenge against all those who colluded with the Americans. Well, what is now history tells us our fears were right and not just Iraq, but much of Middle East is a big mess.

On the Environment:
I am sitting in New England towards the end of January and haven’t yet had to call home once to tell them how cold it is and how I am freezing my ass of in this God forsaken place :-). I have not been skiin even once, and its hard to plan a trip when i don’t see snow anywhere on the ground. While I was in Amman, in the desert, it snowed several feet in a single day, and in Boston I am told it reached 70F a few weeks ago. Something is quite wrong with that picture. Whether it is EL Nino, or La Nina, or just freakish weather due to climatic shifts, the reality is that while the earth is suffering under the burden of our pollution, we are not moving fast enough to change anything in our lives. Only a few of us have made any serious modifications in our lifestyles (myself as guilty as anyone else), and our leadership (political, financial and social) has not yet gripped onto the idea of this world needing a bigger than Manhattan Project scale effort to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. We are asking Saudi Arabia to increase oil production (only so the prices wold fall), China is building two new coal power plants each week (enough to supply all electricity to London), and we are hoping to somehow turn our food supplies into ethanol (which doesn’t necessarily improve our fuel efficiency). I have worked on environmental issues for my graduate research, and am now involved in the now promiscuous ‘Clean-tech’ field as an entrepreneur. I feel the tide is turning, but there is still such a long way to go. If we don’t get our act together, we will be caught, as my colleague Rob says, “with our pants down”! Energy, Environment and Water are the most important issues facing tomorrow’s world, and what are we doing about it now?

So the Right was Wrong. But what is it supposed to do now? Gideon has the following to offer:

All this makes it sound as if the only role left for the Anglo-American right is to roll over and capitulate. But that is far too gloomy. In this new ideological era, conservatives have two obvious tasks – one defensive and one offensive.

The defensive role is to guard against over-reaction to the emerging consensus on global warming and Iraq. The right was not wrong to spot its old anti-capitalist, anti-western foes in the coalitions that first latched on to these issues. There are radical voices that will try to use global warming to create a world in which nobody takes a cheap flight again – and in which globalisation is put into reverse. It will be up to the right to show that growth and greenery can be reconciled. Similarly, the Iraq catastrophe is great news for anti-Americans in Europe and isolationists in the US. Conservatives need to hold the line against both.

But the right can do a lot more than mere damage control. Many of the most important ideas of the Reagan-Thatcher era – privatisation, trade union reform, the re-thinking of the welfare state – were developed in opposition to the intellectual consensus of the 1960s and 1970s. After a long period of intellectual hegemony, a period in ideological opposition might be just what the Anglo-American right needs.

 

Picture(s) of the day: The Light Within

I am mesmerized by this picture. I cannot thank Adil enough for bringing this to my notice. See what he has to say about it. Aaye Haath Uthain Hum Bhi (Come, let us all raise our hands as well). The verse says so much about the Pakistani society of today that desperately needs its silent majority to speak up, so to say raise their hands, and stand up for what they believe in.

This photograph is of Pakistani Kathak (a type of classical dance) maestro Nahid Siddiqui and a fellow artist performing in Islamabad at an event organized by the Pakistan National Council of the Arts.

Bicycle Ambulance

I saw this photo at the Dawn website and found myself with mixed feelings. On one hand, the picture of a young boy being taken to the hospital on a ‘thela’ was deeply troubling. Even in a city with so many public and private ambulance services, this poor family still did not have affordable access to a comfortable and safe ride to the hispital. One can only imagine the lack of such a facilities in rural areas.

But at the same time, I also thought this was an opportunity to create a human-powered ambulance that at least provided service in areas where regular ambulances were hard to locate. I am sure with local ingenuity and some more advanced mechanical research at Pakistani univeristies, an affordable, comfortable, and safe ambulatory vehicle could be designed for work in rural areas. Perhaps it could even be financed, and integrated into low-income or micro-credit eco-system.

Specifically I was reminded of a demonstration by a group of students at MIT a few months ago that had specifically worked in African developing countries to design a bicycle ambulance that would provide a more comfortable ride to pregnant women, elderly, and non-emergency patients to hospitals and clinics (click on picture to enlarge). They had not only used local parts to design a safe and relatively comfortable, yet affordable, transport for patients, but had also done work in understanding the economics of creating local ambulance services.

According to the WHO and UNICEF in 2000, sub-sararan africa had a 1% maternal mortality rate. I am not sure what the rate of maternal mortality is, especially in rural Pakistan, but I would guess at least some of those deaths could be prevented if women had access to transportation to clinics and hospitals. I am just thinking if something like this could also have been helpful in the case of disaster relief, such as the during the earthquake in the Kashmir region?

I think if a group, non-profit organization, or a university student group was to take leadership in this, interesting results could be obtained that would pertain not just to the creation of bicycle ambulances, but also better technology for bicycles for the disabled (such as hand cycles), wheelchairs, and other similar of machines. It is not unthinkable that we could also create our own version of wheelchairs that could climb stairs, or at least bicycles that provided safety for children when being driven with kids on it. There is a tremendous room for technical innovation - it just needs a little push.

Are there people here willing to join me in creating a competition for Pakistani univeristy students to create such technologies?

Lahore Marathon

A marathon is more than just another race. Those who train and then run in a marathon develop a mindset that truly distinguishes them from others: its about patience, discipline, strength, and stamina. Marathon runners can focus and by training for a single race, they develop an apreciation for long hard struggles.

No, I am not a marathon runner, but I do seriously admire those who participate in this endurance sport. My partner in business does run the Boston marathon, and I admire his discipline in training. He trains rigorously and steadfastly for months, watches his weight, his heart beat, and his timing leading up to the event itself. On that day I believe he truly sees the fruits of his hard work when passing over the heart-break hill. Truth be told, I am yet to come across a marathon runner who has not felt a positive impact of the sport on their life, and if I had any additional energy left for a physical sport, I would certainly consider taking it on.

I am reminded today of this sport because I read in the news about the Lahore Marathon. In a country like Pakistan, where avenues for physical training and activity are extremely limited, the promotion of an international marathon race, despite idiotic opposition from some religious groups, is a wonderful sign of increased sensibility towards physical and mental health of the people. It was refreshing to see pictures of large numbers of young men and women competing in the marathon. There was even a tricycle race for the disabled (on wheelchairs), a race for the visually impaired, and a special ‘fun race’ for the slightly faint hearted! Not all may have finished the marathon, but for the first-times, this may not have even been about finishing at all - for me it would have been about participating, and training my mind and my body for the strenous race. While Kenyans dominated the winnings, as always, I hope all others competing realized that true virtue of the sport lies equally in beating and exceeding one’s own personal best.

On this occasion, I think it is useful to highlight the message from the President of Pakistan:

This event and the promotion of tourism have helped in creating a soft image of Pakistan. Through this international competition, the people of Pakistan have rejected the extremists, giving them a clear message that they are keen to organise and participate in such healthy sporting activities.

We belong to a moderate country. We are fond of culture, sports and tourism and this is the distinction of a peaceful country. Sports is vital for a healthy society.

This race, and other activities for the youth are a wonderful display of leadership by the organizers. It is a worthwhile endeavor and I hope buisnesses and the government will support them as much as possible. It must have been difficult for the marathon runners to run in the polluted city environment, but one hopes that will also improve over time. If Beijing and Mexico City can start cleaning up their environment, so can Karachi and Lahore. Maybe the thousands of marathon runners will form a lobbying group to promote a cleaner environment - one other positive outcome of this race.

Soot Emissions from Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) Engines

It was repoted that automakers had introduced several highpowered GDI engines at the Autoshow in Detroit this past week. Green Car Congress, a reputed place to learn about innovations and news of the auto industry had the following to say:

GM, Porsche and BMW are among the automakers announcing gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines in new models introduced at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. Gasoline direct injection technology offers improved combustion and fuel efficiency, offering automakers either a way to deliver comparable power with lower fuel consumption, or increased power with less of a fuel consumption penalty.

Direct injection delivers precisely metered and timed fuel directly to the combustion chamber, enabling a more precise mixture formation. This also has a cooling effect in the chamber, enabling a higher compression ratio, and improving engine efficiency. Less fuel is required to produce the equivalent horsepower of a conventional port injection combustion system.

But somehow there is no discussion of the PM (soot) emissions from GDI engines??? Because the combustion process is a hybrid of the gasoline spark ignition and the diesel compression engine, there is a natural increase in soot emissions from a GDi engine (see here and here, for example). This similarity is more easily identified when particule number concentration is measured (instead of particulate mass). The increased PM emissions have been documented well in several studies in europe, and in fact, the Euro 6 emission regulations are expected to require GDI to meet the same PM/NOx criteria as the diesel engines in europe. While in the short term this may be possible using engine control technologies, and operating in certain regions of the engine map, this may not be possible for a long time. Under transient conditions GDi engines produce about as much soot as a modern diesel engine, and hence to reach PM regulatory limits, a particulate filter may be required.

Well, if a filter, and not just a typical 3-way catalytic converter is required on the GDi engines to reach the low particulate emission limits, it will be another wonderful growth opportunity for the filter makers (such as GEO2) especially in the US light duty market. We will watch and see. Both GDI and diesel engines provide a 20-30% improvement in fuel economy, which I am happy to endorse as long as the best available technologies, such as advanced ceramic particulate filters, are deployed to effectively remove the toxic emissions.

The Periodic Table

I give full credit for this to Abbas Raza of 3 Quarks Daily. What a great blog site!

Rusty Rockets in Scienceagogo:

Despite the periodic table’s ubiquitous presence, how many people would have known what polonium (Po) was prior to the media circus surrounding the poisoning of Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko? The periodic table, which has symbolized chemistry ever since its controversial conception during the 1860s is largely thought of as a fixed reference work, but the table is yet to be completed, and some lucky scientists’ careers involve running high-energy tests to fill in the gaps and perhaps catch a glimpse of the table’s ultimate limits.

To UCLA chemist and historian Eric Scerri, author of the recently published The Periodic Table: Its Story and Its Significance, the periodic table symbolizes and encapsulates the whole field of chemistry. “It is completely unique in science. Chemistry is the only field with one simple chart that embodies the essence of the field. This wonderful tool serves to organize the whole of chemistry,” he says. So while Dmitri Mendeleyev will always be known as the man who “invented” the periodic table, it’s perhaps fitting that the table was actually the brainchild of six independent scientists.

CNG buses coming to Pakistani streets - soon

Here’s a news item that shows how government is actively working to bring more and more CNG engines to Pakistan. I think we consider this to be our short term solution to the energy problem.

Pakistani Busmakers Cutting CNG Bus Prices by 15%

from Green Car Congress by Mike Millikin

Gulf Times. Pakistani busmakers are cutting the prices of their locally produced and compressed natural gas (CNG) buses by 15% following the government’s decision early in December to zero-rate sales tax on the import and supply of all buses which can carry 40 or more passengers, including CNG buses.

As part of the same action on 6 December, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet also zero-rated the sales tax on purpose-built taxis and abolished the 5% customs duty on the import of liquid petroleum gas (LPG).

Mohamed Irfan Shaikh, Director Marketing and Sales, Hinopak Motors Limited (HML), said that bus sales had been restricted to government’s institutional buying while the share of commercial sales had been hovering at 15-20% of total sales which was alarming for local industry.

Irfan said that the arrival of 3,000 used buses from Japan and Singapore in 2006 had dealt a crippling blow to the local sales while the total bus demand of one year is just 800-1,000 units.

…On the other hand, locally-produced CNG buses have also been facing problems as investors have not lifted a single unit yet.

“The operational cost is very high and it can be curtailed, if the government provides subsidy on gas prices,” [Irfan] said.